TAGS Dubai Tender Report - November 2024

Market Overview

Following the Diwali holiday period, factories will all be open within another week, and buyers have returned to the market.

While many of the existing global factors which have dampened sentiment throughout the year remain, we note a slight improvement in the general mood.

For another month, in November, De Beers maintained prices and fewer boxes were sold due to them being considered out of line with market prices.  The Sight was estimated to be in the region of $100m to $130m. 

With 2 consecutive Sights below $150m the levels of rough coming to market has been dramatically reduced, and this has been in part, the reason for the current stability in the market.

The industry estimates annual 2024 sales by De Beers to be in the region of $2.7 billion, and 18m carats. A huge reduction on previous levels close to 30m carats.

ODC have not sold this month, and we believe will resume sales in January. Alrosa have made limited sales in Moscow during November, understood to be approx. $50m.

The coming weeks are seen as critical for the rough market.  All eyes are on De Beers for Sight 10, and Alrosa believed to be selling during the first week of December, to see whether they will reduce rough prices or not. 

The recent election of the new President in Botswana may be a positive outcome for De Beers as he has stated his desire to strengthen the relationship between the company and the Government.

Although overall, rough $ imports into India for 2024 are approx 35% down on last year, with a 23% reduction in carats, October saw a rise in diamond exports of 11.32% compared to last year. These figures could signal a revival of demand for precious stones.  Although this is a single months improvement there is some optimism that , the market has finally stabilised.

On the polished side, the last few weeks, which are important in terms of sales to fulfill seasonal demand, have been solid with steady prices.  While this should probably be attributed to supply limitations rather than increased demand, it is still a welcome outcome.

Polished prices have recently held firm, and with many months of reduced rough supplies into the market, and a reduced production output, manufacturers have started to address the high stock levels.

Although not verified, some manufacturers have claimed that polished sales are the best they have been of 18 months.

Several tenders have taken place recently in Dubai and Antwerp, giving manufacturers the opportunity to purchase selectively and fulfill gaps in inventories. Demand seems to have been good with many rough buyers attending. We anticipate steady rough demand in the coming weeks.

The US election result has already had a positive impact on economic indicators in America, and there is a consensus that consumer confidence for the seasonal sales might improve.

There have been strong polished sales in India during the Diwali period.  Sales into American market have been steady in the past few weeks in the lead up the Christmas season.

China remains stagnant, with no expectation that things might improve before H2 2025.

TAGS Tender Report

At the time of writing TAGS has concluded two sales events during November, with a third scheduled for the week commencing 25th November.

The first tender was an Angolan production, with the second being our regular Southern African production.  In total we presented approx. 51,000 carats with a value of more than $40m. and we welcomed 190 companies over the two weeks.

Demand remained strong across all +10ct ranges, and we continue to see an improvement in all goods +2cts, particularly 5-10cts. Goods in +11 sizes and below were also in good demand, following reduced supply from both De Beers and Alrosa.

The weakest areas remain 3-6gr ranges, due to the lack of Chinese demand.

In total we sold to 80 companies from all the leading manufacturing centres.  There was a clear increase in demand post Diwali, which is encouraging, but we remain acutely aware of the fragility of the market as we move towards 2025.

The sell through across both events was in the region of 70% in both $ and carat  terms.