TAGS Dubai Tender Report - March 2025

Market Report

The first two months of 2025 have not seen the usual excitement in rough activity that typically characterises the First Quarter.

However, with the continuation of limited rough supplies coupled with broadly stable pricing from both De Beers and Alrosa, we have witnessed some stabilising of price in several areas.

Demand in goods +5ct has been relatively strong, and we also see increased demand in the +/-11 sizes. However, in this particular range it is predominantly dealer based demand, and a potentially speculative investment driven by a recent fall in the Indian stock market. 4-6grs ranges remain steady, particularly in the better qualities.

The second De Beers Sight of the year was again small, estimated to be in the region of $ 225m, and there were fewer than expected refusals, in part due to the bounce back in price of small sizes. That said De Beers smalls boxes are still believed to be around -5% against market price.

ODC completed their sale during the week, selling in the region of $37m across a full range of sizes and qualities. Results were significantly better than the previous sale, with price increases across almost all categories.

The historic signing of a 10-year Mining and Marketing agreement between De Beers and The Government of Botswana, will no doubt help to inject a little more confidence and stability into the market.

There are certainly indications of improvement in the rough market, however there are no real signs of a quick and broad recovery, and conditions will likely remain challenging for the remainder of 2025. The big issues of China and Lab Grown remain, and the geopolitical situation remains increasingly uncertain.

Marketing efforts by De Beers in partnership with several leading retailers around the world will help, but the real challenge remains changing the perception of today’s young jewellery buyers and rekindling the confidence of the Chinese consumer.

In polished global demand is said to have decreased in the region of 3-4% in 2024, with the US at -2%. China however remains significantly reduced, with no significant changes expected during the coming year.

Some Polished prices began to level out at the end of 2024, following months of reduced supplies, giving the midstream the opportunity to move stocks which plateaued during the fourth quarter of 2024.

Polished prices have shown some positive movement in February, particularly in the better qualities and colours. This was notably in 1.00 – 4.00ct sizes in Rounds, but goods below 1.00ct showed very little change. Fancy shapes seem to have performed better overall.

At the time of writing the Hong Kong International Diamond Show is underway. Early reports indicate a better than expected show, with trading exceeding exhibitors’ low expectations.

Strong attendance from overseas buyers clearly helped to offset the lack of Chinese demand. Prices reportedly remained firm, as replacement cost has increased.

In terms of appetite from mainland Chinese buyers, there was a slight improvement on last year, and several companies reported that things have improved, albeit slowly in the past few months.

TAGS Tenders

Over the past month we have presented 2 rough tenders and for the first time in Dubai a tender focusing uniquely on Pink Polished and Pink Rough.

Following the success of this event, we hope to conduct more ‘coloured diamond’ events in the coming months.

This weeks tender (3rd – 7th March) is a high value Southern African rough production primarily in +5cts, with a strong emphasis on Special stones and Exceptional’s.

We welcomed more than 100 companies from all the main centres, with a stronger than usual attendance from our Israeli customers. We secured sales to 35 companies.

The value of goods presented was close to $15m, and we are delighted to report very strong bidding with a sell through of approximately 95%.

Our next Sales event runs from 17th – 21st March in Dubai.